We are all entitled to our interpretations and takeaways. Read carefully. It's not about Modi or Congress.
The 2024 campaign was negative from both sides, based on generating fears. Fear of losing reservations on one side, redistribution of wealth, caste census, and raising the quota on the other.
My fear was that the process of economic reforms and growth of the economy should not take a U turn. I have taken a huge sigh of relief. Modi will continue and his key ally, Chandra Babu Naidu, may be many things but he is pro reforms.
Why did I fear so? See, economic reforms were initiated by PV Narsimha Rao's government (1991-96). Even though this period of stability was followed by two untidy coalition governments of Deve Gouda and Gujral, with outside support of Congress, the direction of reforms didn't change. In fact, the 1997 budget, presented by P Chidambaram, is hailed as the "dream budget." The budget presented a road map for economic reforms in India and included lowering income tax rates, removal of the surcharge on corporate taxes, and reduced corporate tax rates.
The reforms got further impetus under Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1998-2004), and the direction of the economy remained growth oriented.
Whatever the reasons for the setback to Vajpayee and the NDA and its "India Shining" campaign, it was interpreted by the next government as a call for populism. The support of CPI (M) was no less responsible for a cautious approach, if not an about turn, in the economic policy.
So, as chance would have it, the same Manmohan Singh, who had steered the economy towards reforms, failed, partly due to coalition compulsions and, largely, due to backseat driving by his political masters, in giving momentum to the economy. While UPA1 appeared to be doing well in terms of growth (largely due to the tailwind of the previous regime), the UPA 2 witnessed large-scale corruption and absolute policy paralysis.
The stage was set for a change and the country delivered the first clear majority verdict in 2014, after a gap of three decades.
Between 2014 and 2024, the economy has been doing remarkably well. It absorbed the Covid shock and bounced back with tremendous resilience.
At the macro level, India's forex reserves, US$ 322.6 billion in 2014, have more than doubled to $648.56 billion in 2024.
Per capita GDP, 1,559.86 USD in 2014, has risen to 2,845 USD in 2024. And this is in spite of the population growth during the period, estimated to be around 12.8%.
The government data claims that 250 million people have been brought above the poverty line.
Where has Modi not succeeded (I will not say failed)?
His detractors claim two things: Mahangai and Berozgari.
The first point lacks substance. As per the World Bank data the average annual inflation between 2014 to 2024 was 5.46%, as against 8.19% during the ten years preceding that.
However, there have indeed been two major drawbacks:
a) the employment generation has not been commensurate with the growth of the economy. You can call it growth without jobs.
b) The concentration of wealth. I am not advocating the foolish idea of wealth distribution or redistribution. Far from it. In my view a wider and more equitable distribution could have been achieved had the start ups and MSME sector done as well as the large corporates. While there are certainly some success stories, it should have been more broad based.
But give the credit where it is due.
Had anyone ever imagined before 2014 that hygiene, toilet construction and end of open defecation will be pursued in mission mode? Modi did it.
This is just one example. Hasn't the Jan Dhan Scheme and DBT hit the source of corruption and created an environment of ease of living?
I don't want to add an exhaustive list of achievements of the government.
Yes there have been spectacular successes but, also, some shortcomings. They have fallen short of meeting the huge expectations that they have created through tall promises. The people of the country have raised the bar of expectations disproportionately.
But where do we go from here? Should we take a complete U turn in the opposite direction? Should we throw the baby with the bath water?
Many of us have issues with, what many choose to call, arrogance. But let us face it. Modi is still our best bet for steering the country forward. We need a course correction on many fronts. Issues like job creation, making the society more equitable and just can be achieved only through sustainable growth.
The economic reforms must continue.
Modi 3.0 is necessary for continuation of policy and reforms.
The verdict, though short of an absolute majority, will ensure that.
All the points taken by you sir,are valid justified one two points I would like to add is that you said job opportunities have not grown with development taken,I think job per se people take govt job into consideration not put jobs,as different govt data shows that sufficient amount of job have been created epfo data also validates this,secondly price rise unemployment growth inflation are pervasive there intensity can be low high but it will never be zero,even whatever best govt may do from public perspective there will be always shortfall in delivery.
ReplyDeleteVery well analyzed. Just one small point. EPFO data shows only the new joiners. It doesn't show how many remained unemployed.
ReplyDeleteWell-researched and written succinctly. In fact, 2024 Lok Sabha polls results have made it clear that who are patriots and who are traitors. Needless to go in details. Unemployment and skyrocketing prices were nowhere the core issues.The real issue was how to dwarf Modi but luckily that did not happen despite coming together of Devils.Now Modi will have to tread cautiously as Nitish character is well-known. Nice effort by you to analyse the 2024 LS polls.
ReplyDeleteThank you.
DeleteA detailed analysis of the recent past and the current elections. The issues before the country are manifold, even after 60-70 years, of which economic growth is tge foremost. While the previous governments were having a lethargic approach Modi took it as a mission. I also don't think there's growing unemployment. What would you say about online services, Make In India, Vande Bharat type of technologies, besides India becoming investor friendly. His comments on Swiss money which is about 15 lakhs per head was misinterpreted. Communal issues were blown our of proportion, to diminish the achievements on Covid front, demonetisation, digitization, connecting to the entire country through Mann ki Baat, abolition of Article 370, changes in IT structure and the role of ED in bringing out several scams. He has not failed, only he has earned the wrath of more venomous issues which remained to be addressed. May be he has to act quick and smart
ReplyDeleteThank you, brother, for your inputs.
DeleteWell articulated.
ReplyDeleteReforms continuity is critical for country to move to 3rd position & further.
On achievements of Shri Modi government, Digital Economy & Covid Vaccination execution were outstanding.
Thank you, Achut bhai. I avoided listing all the achievements. A friend sent a message, telling that Modi had become too arrogant. On the perceived arrogance, I can share something interesting. During my UK days, I read an interview of Sir Alex Ferguson, the famous Man U coach. Man U were winning EPL titles year after year. Someone had said that Alex and Man U were arrogant. Sir Alex said, "People love to hate those who are perceived to be too high in stature. They love mediocrity. Man U is hated because it is Man U, USA is hated because it is USA, head and shoulders above the levels of mediocrity."
ReplyDeleteGood Analogy.
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