Method in Trump's Madness

Without doubt Donald Trump has been the most talked about person since he commenced his second term as the President of the USA. Being the most powerful country in the world the US always gets extra attention and some of it is also reflected on the individual heading the country. But in the case of Trump it has been more about the person.

His campaign was constructed around MAGA (Make America Great Again) theme and for the first few months it appeared that this greatness would be achieved through imposing punishing tariffs. The earliest heavy tariff was announced against China which was first deferred and then kept in abeyance. The apparent reason was USA's heavy dependence on the rare earth minerals supplied by China. However, Trump did impose heavy tariff on various other countries including India, Brazil and South Africa. India was chosen for a special treatment with 25% penal tariff for purchasing oil from Russia.

These tariffs showed an obvious inconsistency and double speak because the USA and Europe make a lot of purchase from Russia. The U.S. continues to import key goods from Russia, primarily fertilizers, precious metals (like palladium, platinum), and inorganic chemicals, despite sanctions, with these commodities dominating trade, alongside uranium (under waiver). The EU buys huge amount of energy from Russia and is heavily dependent on that.

While the tariff tool was being applied, the USA continued with other methods to harass India. Support to Pakistan has been a favourite and time tested tool of the West. There appeared to be a pause over the last twenty five years. However, they are now leaning back on Pakistan. With its economy in shambles, Pakistan is ever willing to comply.  Besides, the USA openly or covertly engineered unrest and regime changes in the neighbouring countries like Nepal and Bangladesh. All this to surround India with a hostile neighbourhood.

And there was, also, a China specific strategy. Its move into Pakistan will certainly weaken the Chinese influence in the country where China is heavily invested. Occupation of Venezuela is the first direct military intervention aimed at hurting China. 

Do we see a method in this madness?

China's bargaining chip was its rare earth minerals. USA is trying to choke China's oil supply. China is the biggest importer of oil.

Venezuela has been seized.

Iran, it appears, is close to regime change. And the next regime would be compliant to the Americans. Columbia could be the next. The other oil producers of the Middle East are already under the American net.

It may be bad news for China but not good for the rest of the world either.

What will happen to BRICS? USA is determined to protect its petro dollar hegemony.

We may or may not like it but we are living in a unipolar world. I have never believed in the military might of China and, now, it's unlikely that China would confront the USA militarily.

Many of us choose to write off Trump as 'insane'. But if we carefully examine what he has been doing, we can notice a much larger objective. 

How did the US achieve the hegemonic position?

- Post WW-ll it moved quickly to seize the opportunities. Europe, realising that the Soviet Union had raised an "iron curtain", was feeling a security threat, particularly in view of the partition of Germany. The US moved in to help the Western European countries rebuild their war torn economies. It extended a $1.3 billion aid under the Marshall Plan. 

- On the defence front, NATO was formed as a collective defence system. In the process of operationalizing NATO, the US has its military bases across Europe, focusing heavily on Germany, Italy, the UK, and Spain. With the eastward expansion of NATO after the collapse of the USSR it has built bases in Poland and Romania. So, it knows that the EU and UK are captive for its designs. If one ever had any doubt, the open threat to 'snatch' Greenland from Denmark demonstrates how helpless Europe is in front of the USA.

- Besides, realising that the future of the world was going to be tied with oil, the USA created a pivotal role for itself and its currency by introducing the petro dollar system. 

How does this strengthen the USA and its economy?

Oil-exporting nations agreed to price their oil in U.S. dollars. 

Dollar Demand: Countries needing oil must first acquire U.S. dollars, creating a steady global demand for the currency.

Petrodollar Recycling: Oil-rich nations earn vast amounts of U.S. dollars (petrodollars) and often reinvest these funds into U.S. financial assets, like Treasury bonds, a process called petrodollar recycling.

So, there are multiple benefits that the USA has been reaping. Can it afford to let it go through a formation like BRICS?

But, the petro dollar system was not created without political and military back-up. The oil rich countries of the Middle East also outsourced their defence to the USA and, like Europe, the USA has its bases across the Arab World. These include Qatar (Al Udeid AB), Kuwait (Camp Arifjan, Ali Al Salem AB), UAE (Al Dhafra AB), Bahrain (NSA Bahrain - 5th Fleet HQ), Saudi Arabia (Prince Sultan AB), Jordan (Muwaffaq Salti AB), and smaller presences in Iraq (Al Asad, Erbil) and Syria (Tanf Garrison).

Let us visualise the situation. America has its hold over the oil reserves of Venezuela and Iran could be the next, through a regime change. The middle east is already a captive territory.

Middle East holds the largest share of proven oil reserves (around 50%), followed by regions with substantial reserves in Venezuela (around 25%), Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, and Iraq. The combined oil reserves of Venezuela and Iran are 512 billion barrels.

Theoretically BRICS sounds good, but what is left of the oil reserves? Russia has around 80 billion barrels. Canada, with large reserves, cannot align itself with those against the USA.

Tough days ahead for the world, and, particularly, India. Can the world unite to thwart this new version of imperialism?